NFL Season Preview Part I- AFC NORTH AND EAST

With just a couple hours until kickoff, I'm going to take a look at the teams and divisions kicking off the season. Tonight's matchup features the Pittsburgh Steelers of the AFC North and the Miami Dolphins of the AFC East. Defending Super Bowl Champion Pittsburgh returns many of its stars and in the eyes of many experts have a strong chance of returning to the big game. I see it a bit differently, as well as some other surprises in the AFC. I'll take a look at each of the divisions, predict how I expect them to finish and look at a few players who should have impact or breakout seasons. I'll begin with the AFC North, the home of the defending champions and the division that could be the most competitive in the conference.

AFC NORTH:
1. Cincinnati Bengals

Will Win If... Carson Palmer is fully recovered from the devastating knee injury he suffered in the first round of last year's playoffs. He's looked good in the preseason, but it is difficult to read from such a small body of work. Everyone is interested to see how his knee will hold up for four quarters during a sixteen game season. His skill players are all back and expect more production from a terrific receiving tandem of Chad Johnson and TJ Houshmandzadeh. Although he's had a rough offseason, and in my mind should not even have the chance to play in this league with all of his transgressions, Chris Henry is an imposing third receiver. Throw in the effective ground game fueled by Rudi Johnson, and this is an offense that scores in bunches. The defense will suffer with Odell Thurman missing the first four games to suspension. They create a lot of turnovers and were carried by strong linebacking play led by Thurman a year ago.

Will Not Win If...Carson Palmer has lingering affects from his knee injury. Gone from a year ago is reliable backup Jon Kitna. If Palmer can't play, Anthony Wright will not lead this team anywhere. They've had a difficult offseason with several players accused of a variety of crimes. The organization claims to be taking a hard stance against these players, but still allow a repeated criminal Chris Henry to play a large role in their offense. The defense will be hurt by Thurman's absence in the first four games and could struggle to mesh as a unit once he returns. Along with the Giants, face the toughest schedule based on last year's winning percentages. They could wear down as the season goes on, especially Carson Palmer.

Impact Player: Carson Palmer. Not exactly a reach here, but his health is the key to this season.

2. Baltimore Ravens

Will Win If...Steve McNair can stay healthy. When healthy, McNair is a very effective quarterback and a perfect fit for this offense. His mere presence will prevent defenses from stacking the box against the run and should lead to a bounce back year for Jamal Lewis. Last year's Jamal Lewis was distracted by his off-season spent in jail and rehabbing from a lingering ankle injury. He should be a force once again this year. The performance of number one receiver Derrek Mason should improve being reunited with McNair, a quarterback that helped him reach the Pro Bowl while in Tennessee. McNair also thrives with a solid pass catching TE which the Ravens have in Todd Heap. Young receivers Mark Clayton and rookie Demetrious Williams should also provide McNair with great targets. On the other side of the ball, Ray Lewis got his draft request with DT/space eater Haloti Ngata out of Oregon. Led by Lewis and Ed Reed, this is still a punishing defense. With an offense that can actually keep them off the field, they should regain their dominant form.

Will Not Win if...Kyle Boller is forced in to action. Although he has a strong arm and the physical tools, Boller has not gotten the job done in Baltimore. With McNair at the helm, this is a dangerous team. If not, they're average at best. The defense must regain the dominant form that carried them to playoffs past. Ray Lewis better back up his strong words, suggesting he needed linemen to keep the blockers off him. Management responded by drafting Ngata, a massive interior lineman whose main objective is to free up Lewis.

Impact Player: Haloti Ngata, DT. McNair's health is the key, but a lot of attention will be focused on the mammoth first rounder. The pressure is on him to keep the blockers off playmaking LB Ray Lewis.

3. Pittsburgh Steelers

Will Win If... Wilie Parker can endure the grind of a full season. Parker got much needed rest in tough yardage situation a season ago from now retired Jerome Bettis. Backups Duce Staley and Verron Haynes must step in to give him a breather. Ben Roethlisberger had a rough offseason with his near-death accident and most recently an emergency appendectomy that will keep him out of the lineup in Week One. He's been counted on to keep drives moving and throw a limited amount of passes, but he may need to become more instrumental in the offense's success this season. Gone from last year is WR Antwaan Randle El whose trick plays made this offense very unpredictable. Rookie wideout Santonio Holmes had some off the field issues that he must look past and take on a big role in this offense. Second year TE Heath Miller looks to build on his strong rookie season and provides a great security blanket for Big Ben. This team is always built on running the football and tough defense, and the defense remains largely in tact. Troy Polamolu has emerged as one of the brightest defensive stars in the game, and Joey Porter continues his strong play at linebacker. They will keep this team in a lot of games even if the offense isn't putting up a lot of points.

Will Not Win If... The string of bad luck continues for Ben Roethlisberger. He must remain on the field and not lose the toughness that has made him successful in his short career. The loss of Antwaan Randle El will hurt this team in several ways. It limits their ability to keep defenses honest with trick plays, lose a deep threat in the passing game, and lose a return guy capable of giving them not only good field position but break one for a score. This team caught several breaks last year that began with sliding in the back door to the playoffs. In the first round the Bengals lost star QB Carson Palmer after his first pass. Against the Colts the usually reliable Mike Vandergjagt missed an opportunity late for a tie, as well as Nick Harper inexplicably getting tripped up by Big Ben after recovering a Bettis fumble. Unfortunately, it can be explained by Harper nursing a bum leg as a result of a domestic dispute in which he was stabbed. All of this, not to mention the great motivation of allowing their beloved star to go out on top in his hometown.

Impact Player: Heath Miller. As a rookie he only caught 39 balls, but gave this offense a boost. With the loss of Randle El and questionable receiver talent behind Hines Ward, Miller must step up.

4. Cleveland Browns

Will Win If....The other three teams in this division suffer a rash of injuries. While the front office did a great job of compling some talented free agents, this is a team that is yet to play .500 football for a season since returning to Cleveland. The prize of their free agent class, emerging star C LeCharles Bentley was lost for the season in the Browns first practice. Consider that a terrible, terrible omen for things to come. However, they've bulked up their offensive and defensive playmaking with the return of TE Kellen Winslow and the acquisitions of Joe Jurevicius and Willie McGinest. McGinest is now reunited with Romeo Crennel and could help first round draft pick Kamerion Wimbley become a force at outside linebacker. They have a talented receiving core in Jurevicius, Winslow, and Braylon Edwards. Joining Frye in the backfield is Reuben Droughns who rushed for over 1200 yards a season ago. They face some tough defenses in the division, but this is a talented offense. On the defensive side of the ball McGinest will need to impart his winning ways on a team loaded with perennial losers. In addition to McGinest they brought in space eating NT Ted Washington and added talented linebackers early in the draft.

Will NOT win if...all goes according to plan. Charlie Frye is in his first full season as a starter and will undoubtedly suffer some growing pains. The loss of Bentley in the preseason will really hurt the ability of the offensive line to open up holes for Droughns and keep Frye upright. The defense has a lot of question marks and young talent which may struggle to keep opposing offenses off the board. Should be another tough season in the Dawg Pound.

Impact Player: Kellen Winslow, the "f***in soldier". Should be playing with a huge chip on his shoulder after his character has been questioned by his off the field choices. Enormously talented but needs to get his head focused on the game. Has made terrible impressions since proclaiming himself to be a soldier in a postgame interview while at the U.

AFC EAST

1. Miami Dolphins

Will Win IF...Daunte Culpepper stays healthy. Isn't it amazing how many teams are relying on QB's returning from injury? This is a team that reeled off six straight wins at the end of last year under first year coach and are the chic pick to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl. I won't go that far, but in a weak division with a vulnerable Patriots team, I like their chances to win the East. Culpepper has a strong set of pass catchers with Chris Chambers,(who I'll mention more later), Marty Booker, Randy McMichael, and rookie Derek Hagan. Chambers is coming off a season in which he had over 1100 receiving yards and 11 touchdowns as the main threat for Gus Frerotte. If he had those numbers with Frerotte, it is scary to think what he can do this year. Joining Culpepper in the backfield is second year back Ronnie Brown who also is primed for a big year. He's big enough to handle a full load and will get more opportunities with Ricky Williams gone for the year. The defense is getting older, but still has reliable veterans Jason Taylor and Zach Thomas. Their secondary is suspect and need rookie Jason Allen to step up in the backend.

Will NOT win if...Culpepper looks like the Culpepper from the beginning of '05. While many people look at his season as lost for the injury, he was off to a horrific start prior to the loss of his season. He turned the ball over at a high rate and looked very ineffective. It'll be interesting to see how much mobility he has lost due to his injury. The defense could be prone to the big play with a spotty secondary.

Impact Player: Daunte Culpepper. He has the potential to team with Chris Chambers to be one of the most feared QB-WR duos in the league and has a defense that will keep him in games. If he's healthy, they should win the division

2. New England Patriots

Will Win If...It's tough to go against Tom Brady, but they had another rough offseason. Gone are Adam Vinatieri, David Givens, and Willie McGinest. Top wideout Deion Branch is holding out and does not look like he'll be back on the field for a while. However, this is a team that depends on good game management from an elite QB and incredible coaching. Rookie Laurence Maroney should give a huge boost to the running game and could help Corey Dillon raise his game. Fellow rookie Chad Jackson could add a big play dimension to the offense and TE Ben Watson should also pick up the slack in the passing game. In recent weeks they've added LB Junior Seau to help offset the loss of Willie McGinest. Richard Seymour has emerged as one of the finest defensive linemen in the game. In the preseason Rodney Harrison looks fully healed from the devastating injury he suffered and will help a very questionable secondary.

Will NOT Win If...they can not find a wide receiver to step up. While Tom Brady has been an elite QB since taking over the starting position in 2001, he needs someone to throw to. With his favorite target Branch sidelined with a contract dispute, someone needs to step up. At this point there's no reason to fear the tandem of Reche Caldwell and Chad Jackson. The secondary should be prone to big plays and this defense could give up more points than we've seen in recent years from the Pats.

Impact Player: Ben Watson. The person who needs to step up in the passing game doesn't necessarily have to be a wide receiver. Watson has the tools to be a top flight tight end, especially in an offense that loves using tight ends.

3. Buffalo Bills

Will Win If... Willis McGahee can find the end zone more. Despite putting up good yardage numbers, McGahee and the Bills offense had trouble finding the end zone. Part of the problem was the instability at Quarterback. The starter has been tabbed as JP Losman, but if he struggles Kelly Holcomb is waiting in the wings. One of these two must step up and stabilize the offense. They have a talented wideout in Lee Evans, but not many other weapons in the passing game. On defense they expected much more production than they received. This year's cast features a strong linebacking core in Angelo Crowell, Takeo Spikes, and London Fletcher. Nate Clements is a very talented corner, and the addition of Larry Triplett should shore up the middle of the defensive line.

Will Not Win If...they can't figure out their QB situation. McGahee is a talented back who will take a lot of pressure off the quarterback if one guy can just step up and assume control. Losman is a bit undersized, but has shown flashes of ability. The defense has some holes along the front line and will depend on first round choice Donte Whitner to be a key part of the secondary. Veteran Troy Vincent should help his progress along, but Clements and McGee are prone to coverage mistakes that should test the young player.

Impact Player: Peerless Price. If Price can return to the player he was during his last tour of duty in Buffalo, this offense will get a much needed boost.

4. New York Jets

Will Win If... Someone steps up in the running game. Right now they'll take the running back by committee route with Kevan Barlow, Leon Washington, Cedric Houston, and Derrick Blaylock. Barlow has the potential to steal this job, but needs more reps with his new team. There are also big questions surrounding Chad Pennington's shoulder and his ability to lead an offense. If he falters the offense would be left in the hands of promising rookie Kellen Clemens or unproven young veteran Patrick Ramsey. The Jets will rely on two first round draft picks, C Nick Mangold and T D'Brickashaw Ferguson, to anchor their offensive line. Pennington does not have many option in the passing game as WR Laveranues Coles suffered in his absence a year ago. The Jets need Pennington and Coles to re-establish the repore they had a couple of seasons ago. On defense there is some talent, starting with MLB Jonathan Vilma. He has emerged as one of the game's bright young stars on defense. They added DL Kimo Von Oelhoffen to solidify the defensive line and infuse a winning attitude fresh off his Super Bowl win.

Will Not Win If...too many questions on offense to win this year. The defense isn't strong enough to carry them through scoring droughts, which this team is sure to have. Chad Pennington's days as an elite starter are over, but can he be a serviceable one this season? He looked alright in the preseason, but only time will tell. The defense is going through a schematic transition with new coach Eric Mangini and the team could have some shell shock going from laid back Herm Edwards to tough guy Mangini. Should be a tough season for the Jets.

Impact Player. Kevan Barlow. Several years ago many people projected this guy to really break out. While he's shown flashes, he has been mainly ineffective. He has landed in a great position to become a solid running back.