Wednesday, December 27, 2006

Playoffs?!? As crazy as it sounds, Giants nearly in control of destiny

It would take a pretty convincing argument to persuade anyone to believe that the New York Football Giants are a playoff caliber team right now. However, if they win at Washington on Saturday, it is extremely likely they will hold on to the sixth seed in the NFC. The scenarios have been described over and over in articles all over the web. However, it always seems easier to learn from a graphic than discern sports writer babble. For Giants fans, the only 7-8 team of any concern is the Green Bay Packers. They own the head-to-head tiebreaker over Atlanta and Carolina, as well as the conference record tiebreaker over the St. Louis. Due to an identical conference record, no head to head matchup, and an even winning percentage in common games if both win their remaining game, the tiebreaker goes to Strength of Victory. Strength of victory is calculated by adding up the records of all the teams beaten by the team in question. For example, if you beat a 5-0 team and an 0-5 team, your strength of victory would be .500 (5-5) percent. Right now the Giants hold a huge advantage in this department, so the Packers need everything to break their way in this weekend's action. A lot to digest, right? With that in mind, below is an easy to follow chart on the only way the Giants could be left out of the Super Bowl tournament with a win.

SCENARIO FOR GIANTS NOT TO MAKE PLAYOFFS WITH WIN:
(All Packers Victims Projected to Win, All Giants Victims Projected to Lose)
PACKERS VICTIMS RECORD GIANTS VICTIMS RECORD
Detroit 3-13 Philadelphia 10-6/9-7
Miami 7-9 Washington 5-11
Arizona 6-10 Atlanta 7-9/8-8
Minnesota 7-9 Dallas 9-7
San Francisco 7-9 Tampa Bay 4-12
Detroit 3-13 Houston 5-11
Minnesota 7-9 Carolina 7-9
Bears 13-3 Washington 5-11

FINAL TOTALS: 53-75 52-76

*Philadelphia and Atlanta play each other in Week 17

As you can see, if all of the Packers previous victims win they will have a total of 53 wins compared to the Giants 52 if all of theirs lose. This chart only explains how the Giants DO NOT qualify with a win. What is not evident from this chart is that Dallas hosts Detroit on Sunday. If Dallas wins, the tiebreaker is clinched for the Giants. It seems pretty reasonable that a playoff team fighting for the division can beat arguably football's worst team on their home field. There are many other reasonable scenarios that put the Giants in the playoffs with a win, but the last part may be the trickiest. Getting a win, although its the only thing they can control, looks to be the toughest for them to handle.

The Giants are playing terrible football, but are hoping a change in play-calling duties can spark a stagnant offense. Instilling Kevin Gilbride as the play caller seems to be a way of improving Eli Manning. Gilbride is the man most responsible for dealing with the young quarterback and his selection may signal concern within the organization about Eli's lack of progress. Coach Coughlin suggested he'd been mulling the decision to strip Hufnagel of his duties, but it seems his loyalty to a long-time employee got in the way of rational decision making. Hufnagel has been connected to Coughlin for many years and the head coach has always been known for his dedication to people he trusts. It's just unfortunate that his own personal dilemma has disrupted the success of his football team for possibly an irreparable period of time.

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