Thoughts on the LaVar Arrington situation

With the NFL Draft a little over two weeks away, a flurry of signings could be made to help shape the draft picture. The Giants were busy early, signing six defensive backs to sure up their most glaring weakness. Since then, aside from the uneventful Grey Ruegamer signing, it has been the LaVar Arrington waiting game. Speculation has run rampant, from fan blogs reporting his signing (one going so far as to lock it in to a six year deal) to the New York Post stating any offer has been pulled. Most recently, the talk has been that it's a two team race between the Green Bay Packers and Miami Dolphins. Let's take a look at his prospects:

Green Bay Packers: This move would make a lot of sense for a team in desperate need of a defensive playmaker. Out of Arrington's potential suitors they have the most room under the cap for a big signing and would like to avoid having to rebuild. However, holding the #5 pick in the draft, OLB AJ Hawk should be available. Hawk would be more than capable to play alongside incumbent MLB Nick Barnett as a rookie and could be a star in this league for years to come. For Arrington, a guy who cares about winning, this does not seem to be a good fit. First, the Brett Favre situation should be significant. If Favre returns, they may have a shot to contend in the NFC North and would satisfy Arrington's need to win. If he doesn't, Arrington instantly becomes the face of the franchise, but on a rebuilding team. The reins would be prematurely handed to second year QB Aaron Rodgers, a guy whom the Packers do not seem sold on as the future. Their two keys offensively are aging RB Ahman Green and WR Javon Walker, both of whom are coming off injuries. Walker is unhappy and would like to be traded, and Green's days as an elite back are behind him. While Green Bay has the money which may ultimately lead to his signing, it is a move that neither party should make.

Miami Dolphins: This is a very promising landing spot for Arrington. They have a second year coach who knows how to win, a good mixture of young talent and veteran leadership, and a talented QB who should return to elite status. Defense has always been key to their success and Arrington would join a core of veterans who know how to play the game. Although New England has had a strangle hold on the AFC East, the Dolphins seem to have the talent on hand to knock them from their perch. From a marketing standpoint, this may not work out well for LaVar. The acquisition of Daunte Culpepper overshadows this move, and the defense already has poster boy Jason Taylor. In financial terms, which seems to be the biggest factor, he would stand to make more heading to New York. Another factor working against Miami is being in the AFC. Although I'm sure it's not as big of an issue as money, LaVar wants the opportunity to make Washington pay. In Miami, he would not get this opportunity.

Those are the two major players in the LaVar chase, as widely reported, but it seems the Giants are not out of this chase yet. First, this situation has grown eerily similar to the Plaxico Burress situation of a year ago. Let's review: he came in early to visit, got an offer that he didn't like, Giants proceed to pull the offer, no other team pushes hard enough, Plaxico lands with the Giants after hiring Drew Rosenhaus. Prior to signing, the Giants toy with the idea of bringing in WR David Terrell. They don't, and thankfully end up with Plaxico. Back to Arrington: he made the early visit, some media outlets report an offer was made, now they're reporting the Giants have pulled the offer, and no team has stepped up. The Poston's, Arrington's representation, are facing suspension from the NFL, so a new agent might not be out of the picture. The Giants brought in LB Chad Brown for a visit, who certainly is not enough to solve their LB issues, but could be a similar strategy to Terrell a year ago. Arrington stands to make a ton of money in endorsements if he were in New York, so if the Giants offer is near the other two, compensation would take the form of lucrative off the field deals. It seems the longer this drags out, the better chance Arrington will land in New York. He views them as a potential Super Bowl team, and would allow him to punish the 'Skins twice a year. Ernie Accorsi is on his way out the door and would love another ring before he goes. He has always puts an emphasis on pressuring the QB and Arrington definitely brings that element. The Giants have other needs (DT, DB, 3rd WR) that have not been taking care of during this entire ordeal. It seems Accorsi is saving that cap room for Arrington, but there could be other factors. If he can get Arrington to sign, the Giants could try and draft a playmaking DB that they still seem to lack (despite the flurry of signings) with the 25th pick.
An interesting side note for Giants fans, he wore #11 in College and #56 in the pros. Growing up as a Phil Simms and Lawrence Taylor worshipper, the omens seem to be in place for his signing. Whether he becomes a Giant or not, a decision just needs to be made. The varying reports have made this a very frustrating situation for the fans, but hopefully will end with Arrington solving the Giants LB issues.