Boston Wins Rights To Negotiate With Matsuzaka

On Tuesday evening MLB officials confirmed that the Boston Red Sox posted the highest bid to the Seibu Lions for the rights to negotiate with prized pitching ace Daisuke Matsuzaka. The winning bid exceeded earlier reports and is reported at $51.1 million dollars. For those counting at home, this is roughly $40 million more than the Seattle Mariners spent to acquire the rights to negotiate with Ichiro Suzuki. Everyone seems to think Boston will come to an agreement with Matsuzaka and it was Major League Baseball's duty to make sure no "block bids' were made. However, I find it unfathomable that the two sides will agree to a deal after such an exorbinant bidder's fee.

Now that the price has been confirmed, start crunching some numbers. To make the math as simple as possible, assume Boston looks to sign Matsuzaka to a 5 year deal at roughly $13 million annually. If you tack on the $10 million per year to include the bidder's fee, this relatively unproven commodity is being given Alex Rodriguez money at $23 million per year. There's all this talk about his infamous "gyroball" which the pitcher himself denounces as true. Regardless, Clemens' proven Mr. Splitty is worth about $22 million and Rick "Wild Thing" Vaughn's terminator was valued at even less. The only way this deal works is if Boras will accept a deal for significantly less than he thinks his client is worth.

Many people are scratching their heads at Boston's decision to break the bank. The major reasons that have been given are expanding their brand to the Far East and blocking the Yankees from making the deal. However, as has been pointed out, they shouldn't expect to profit from this move in the same ways the Yankees and Mariners have with their acquisitions of Hideki Matsui and Ichiro Suzuki respectively. Fenway doesn't have the available space in the ballpark for the massive Japanese advertising campaign the Yankees have run, and Seattle's proximity to the Far East makes pledging allegiances to the Mariners much easier. If the anonymous bidding system continues, there's no way to "mark your territorry" so making a signing or two does not make you a favorite in the future. Teams did this in the earlier years with the influx of Latin American talent, but that is made irrelevant with the posting system. In terms of blocking the Yankees, they have succeeded. With the sole negotiating rights, as long as Boston makes a "fair" offer the Yankees have absolutely no chance of adding Matsuzaka to their 2007 roster.

To be fair, Boston does have the money to spend. They're looking to upgrade their pitching staff and GM Theo Epstein knows he needs to win this year for job security. With the high bidding fee, Boras will be forced to accept less money for his client. Matsuzaka will be under intense pressure from the Seibu Lions, his current team, so they can pocket the $51.1 million they desperately need. While Boras has urged his amateur clients to sit out a year to improve their first paycheck, it seems less likely he will allow Matsuzaka to wait until he becomes unrestricted in 2007. Since Boras will undoubtedly have to take less money for his client than he would hope, he'll probably target a short term deal. However, the shorter the length of the contract, the more the team is spending per year on its bidding fee. This is sure to complicate the negotiation process and the deal should be in no way considered imminent. With Boras aiming to set a high standard for free agent pitchers with prominent client Barry Zito hitting the market, I don't expect him to accept a low-ball offer. The 30-day window given to broker a deal should be an interesting one. I still strongly believe Matsuzaka will not become a Red Sox, but stranger things have happened. If he does come to the states, Yankees fans are surely hoping for the second coming of Hideki Irabu.