Super Bowl XLI Preview

Football fans have been inundated with Super Bowl coverage for two weeks and are more than ready for XLI to kickoff. All of the "experts" have thrown their hats in the ring and overwhelmingly feel Indianapolis will leave Miami with the Lombardi Trophy. Two thirds of ESPN.com experts support the Colts, with MVP honors going to Peyton Manning. They've been installed as 7 point favorites and many fans are rooting for Manning to silence his critics. The amount of love being thrown the Colts way is even a bit unsettling. However, with the improvements made this postseason on defense, the Colts should win this game.

The Bears Will Win If... they can control the clock. This matchup feels eerily reminiscent to Super Bowl XXV between the Giants and Bills. The Bills came in with a high powered offense against a stout Giants defense. Both the Bears and '90 Giants relied on tremendous linebacker play, a strong ground game fueled by a tandem of backs, and opportune plays in the passing game. If the Bears can implement the clock control offense the Giants employed in XXV to keep the high powered Colts offense on the sidelines, they have a terrific opportunity to win this game. Lovie Smith adopted the Tampa 2 from his days under Tony Dungy, so it's not going to catch them by surprise. The Colts operate under the same system, so their offense is used to practicing against it. However, Chicago's personnel makes it a lot more effective. A big key for the Colts this postseason has been TE Dallas Clark. With LB Brian Urlacher roaming the middle in the Tampa 2 scheme, the Bears have allowed only one TE (Pats Ben Watson) more than 40 receiving yards all season. Shutting down Clark (as well as backup TE's Bryan Fletcher and Ben Utecht) will be a big key in the game. They also need to get strong play from their inexperienced safeties. Chris Harris and Danieal Manning must not get caught up in all of Peyton's gesturing and false audible calls.

Offensively they need to run the football. First and foremost, it will help control the clock. Next, and almost equally as important, the Bears need to stay out of clear passing situations. The Colts are at their best when they can attack the QB and Rex Grossman is at his worst with pressure in his face. Indianapolis is undersized on defense, but extremely quick. They have had tackling issues all season, so Chicago should spread them out and force them to make open field tackles. The Colts secondary is a bit banged up with starters Nick Harper and Bob Sanders on the injury report this week. Grossman's greatest strength is throwing the deep ball and the Bears can't be afraid to let him wing a few downfield. A deep strike early could get Grossman's confidence up and really change the tide of the game.

An X-factor in this game could be return specialist Devin Hester, in both a good or bad way. Against the Seahawks in their first playoff game, Hester struggled with ball control. However, he set a new record for return touchdowns in a season during the regular season. He's an explosive playmaker who could swing field position in the Bears favor. Could have a similar impact on this game as Super Bowl XXXI MVP Desmond Howard.

MVP will be...Thomas Jones. They need to run the ball well and Jones gives them a better chance to win. Cedric Benson has stolen some carries, but Jones is a more polished back.
Sleeper MVP...Ricky Manning Jr. Anyone remember his 3 interceptions of Donovan McNabb to put the Panthers in the Super Bowl? A real ball hawk who could bait Manning in to a key turnover.

The Colts Will Win If... they take care of the football. All season long the Bears exceled by creating turnovers. With a rookie as their featured back, Joseph Addai needs to focus on keeping the ball protected. Although Manning makes great decisions and is extremely accurate, he will sometimes try to make a mistake trying to fit a ball in a tight space. He's turned the ball over several times this postseason after throwing only 9 interceptions in the regular season. The focus all week has been on the Colts vaunted stretch play. They must run it effectively to set up the play action. If Manning can trick the Bears in to reading the run, his TE's will be able to get open in the middle of the field. Wide Receiver Marvin Harrison has struggled this postseason, so the Colts should get #88 involved early and often. He's smart enough to take advantage of the inexperienced safeties of the Bears and could find holes in the defense.

Much has been made of their defensive struggles during the regular season, but the return of safety Bob Sanders has re-energized this unit. The Colts bring him in to the box to stuff the run and he also brings tremendous ball skills in pass defense. With Nick Harper a game time decision, expect Marlin Jackson to get more playing time. His interception of Tom Brady sent the Colts to XLI. A big key to this game will be the tackling of the Colts linebackers. Cato June, a pro bowler a season ago, struggled at times this season wrapping up ball carriers. This Colts team can not allow the Bears to continue drives with poor tackling. As mentioned earlier, the undersized defense is at its best when it can rush the passer. They have a tremendous set of rush ends in Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis. In sure passing downs, the front four is capable of bringing a lot of heat. Mid-season acquisition DT Anthony McFarland seems to finally be settled in the middle and has greatly boosted their ability to stop the run.

With all the attention being heaped on Bears KR Devin Hester, people overlook Terrence Wilkins. He's more than capable of a few big returns. The bigger story is Adam Vinatieri. Given a chance late in the game, the Colts know he will come up clutch. If the Colts play like they can, a field goal probably won't decide this game. His bigger impact could be how he kicks to Devin Hester. It'll be interesting to see if they give Hester a chance to burn them.

An X-Factor for the Colts will be Dallas Clark. If he can start getting behind Urlacher in the middle, the outsides will open up for Reggie Wayne and Marvin Harrison. He leads the team in receptions this postseason, but his bigger impact on this game will be opening things up for the playmakers on the outside.

MVP will be... Peyton Manning. I hate going with the masses on this, but if he gives voters even the slightest reason to vote for him they will. Other players could have a bigger impact, potentially one of his receivers, but everyone is anxious to see Manning as the MVP.

MVP Sleeper... Cato June. A bulk of the responsibility for stopping the run will be on June's shoulders. He's also had an impact this season creating turnovers, including a multiple interception performance against Tom Brady.

Preview: With Steve Young aboard the ESPN Sunday Countdown Crew, the pundits in Bristol have beaten the "Peyton Manning getting the monkey off his back" angle to death for this game. Steve Young spent years getting beaten by the Cowboys, but once he got by them, he torched the Chargers for 6 touchdowns in the Super Bowl. Now that Manning has gotten by Belichick and Brady, they all feel it's his time. It's hard to argue. The Bears defense has been phenomenal all season, but they're not as dominant as many would like you to believe. The losses of Safety Mike Brown and DT Tommie Harris have made this defense susceptible to giving up big chunks of yardage. They rely on turnovers, so if the Colts can protect the footballl, they'll be able to move down the field. If their defense can contain the tough Bears ground game and force Grossman in to obvious passing situations, rush ends Freeney and Mathis could have a field day. A late developing situation is the weather. It could be wet and messy on the field, which would definitely favor the Bears. However, and this may be my heart talking more than my head, I fully expect the Colts to walk away victorious.

Super Bowl XLI: Colts 31- Bears 21