In another matchup of two teams heading in opposite directions the torrid Dodgers head to Shea to face the NL East champion Mets. The Dodgers had an exciting September in their highly competitive chase for the NL West crown but fell short to San Diego. Their first round opponents have been in cruise control for months having wrapped up the division and home-field advantage with ease. Unfortunately the Mets come limping in to the playoffs with the season-ending injury to ace Pedro Martinez and being forced to keep projected Game One starter Orlando Hernandez off the NLDS roster with a calf injury.
Why The Mets Will Win...Top to bottom the Mets have the toughest lineup in the National League. They're hoping Carlos Beltran can re-enact some of his '04 magic for the Astros that lead to his signing in New York. If Jose Reyes gets on, he is the most disruptive force in baseball. The lineup is filled with guys who can hit for power and average. For the first time post-Franco they have a reliable closer in Billy Wagner. Despite the loss of setup man Duaner Sanchez, the bullpen has done a great job all year. John Maine will get the ball in today's opener and has been effective since being brought to New York in July. While he's won-loss is only at a game over .500 he's pitched to a low ERA. Veteran ace Tom Glavine has been brilliant at times this year and has tons of postseason experience. The bats seem to come alive every time Steve Trachsel takes the mound as he received the most run support in the National League. The trio of Maine, Glavine, and Trachsel is more than capable of producing the three wins they need in this series.
Why The Dodgers Will Win...Stronger starting pitching. While NL Cy Young candidate Brad Penny is slated to only come out of the bullpen, the Dodgers still hold a decided advantage in starting pitching. Fellow 16 game winner Derek Lowe will start Game one and he's no stranger to the postseason. Neither is crafty veteran Greg Maddux who has had a resurgence in Los Angeles. The bullpen has also been strong despite the loss of closer Eric Gagne. New closer Takashi Saito has been extremely effective with a deadly slider, converting 24 saves with a slightly higher than 2 ERA. Offensively they have very good balance of veterans such as Nomar Garciaparra, Jeff Kent, Rafael Furcal and JD Drew, but have been energized by youngster Russell Martin and journeyman Marlon Anderson. While they do not have an overwhelming amount of power, they've shown in recent weeks they can hit the long ball if necessary. They will need Furcal to counter Reyes' production at the top of the lineup and be equally as disruptive. While Garciaparra has been nursing injury recently, he's provided tons of clutch hits down the stretch.
Prediction: This may be the toughest series to predict. With the recent injuries to Hernandez and Martinez, the Mets strangle-hold as the NL favorites has weakened. Their lineup is second to none in the NL and still could be enough to carry them deep in to the postseason. However, this could be a trap series. With Derek Lowe and Greg Maddux the Dodgers have the starting pitching to keep the Mets' bats quiet. The biggest question for the Dodgers is whether they exerted too much energy in September in order to qualify for the postseason. If the Dodgers can steal one of the first two in New York, I really like their chances. It's tough to imagine the Mets bowing out in the first round after being so dominant for much of the year, so despite strong feelings to the contrary, I'll take the Mets in five.
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