NLDS Preview- St. Louis vs. San Diego

For the second straight year these two teams meet in the Division Series, this time starting out in San Diego for game one. This year San Diego enters the playoffs as the hot team, seizing and maintaining first place late in the season from a dangerous Dodgers team. On the other end of the spectrum, St. Louis survived a late September surge from Houston and avoided one of the worst collapses in MLB history. The Cardinals will continue to rely on baseball's most dangerous hitter to overcome glaring pitching weaknesses and hope San Diego wasted too much energy securing the division down the stretch.

Why the Padres Will Win... They're peaking at the right time. They've been in a playoff atmosphere the last few weeks and have played tremendously well. Jake Peavy has the ability to dominate a game and should have a couple of opportunities to do so in this series. San Diego has relied on its pitching and has not been let down. As a team they lead the National League in runs allowed, batting average against, and saves. They have experienced closer Trevor Hoffman, a decided advantage over the Cardinals Braden Looper. While Mike Piazza has been ripped over his fielding deficiencies throughout his career, he certainly knows how to handle a staff. His postseason experience should be extremely beneficial. He also has provided the middle of the lineup with some pop, finishing tied for second on the team with 22 homeruns. While the offense finished towards the bottom of the league in most offensive categories, they have a pretty good balance of power and speed. Dave Roberts is a disruptive force on the base paths while Adrian Gonzalez, Brian Giles, and Mike Cameron can all hit the long ball.

Why The Cardinals Will Win... Tony LaRussa's decision to allow Chris Carpenter to skip his last start will surely pay dividends. While it was a risky move with the division crown still in the balance, the Cardinals snuck in to the playoffs and now have their ace ready to pitch multiple times if necessary. Their bullpen took a major hit with a late season injury to closer Jason Isringhausen. The Cards will now have to rely on either inconsistent Braden Looper or inexperienced Adam Wainwright to close out games. Carpenter is more than capable of winning two games in this series and Jeff Suppan has pitched better of late. Although the offense has been very one dimensional of late, the man doing the damage may be the best hitter in all of baseball. Albert Pujols is capable of carrying this offense through some tough times, but will need someone to step up. If Jim Edmonds is healthy, he can certainly help shoulder the load as well as 3B Scott Rolen. While Chris Duncan's numbers have tailed off recently, he still belted 22 homeruns in limited at bats while hitting at nearly a .300 clip. This is a very capable offense that can not be counted out.

Prediction: Conventional wisdom suggests pitching trumps hitting in the postseason. To take it one step further, it is often believed a team peaking at the right time should be favored. In this series, San Diego holds a decided advantage in both of these areas. However, I'm going against both of these theories in picking a winner for this series. NL MVP Candidate Albert Pujols will have a monster series and put the Cards on his back. Carpenter is capable of picking up a couple of victories and should get help from Jeff Suppan. Trevor Hoffman has struggled in big situations this year (All-Star game, last two of the Dodgers four consecutive HRs) and could be susceptible to more late inning trouble. While the Cards bullpen is a messy situation, the Padres may not be strong enough offensively to really make them pay. San Diego's hot streak runs out as they lose to the Cardinals in four.